ISIS Exploits Chaos in Syria and Beyond to Regroup, Recruit, and Strike Globally
Executive Summary
ISIS is leveraging global instability—particularly Syria’s ongoing power vacuum and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime—to mount a resurgence in recruitment, logistics, and terror operations. With foreign fighters disillusioned by the new post-Assad leadership and facing expulsion, the Islamic State has initiated a focused campaign to bring them back into its ranks. At the same time, ISIS affiliates in Africa and Asia are capturing territory, while lone wolf attacks and plots inspired by the group are increasing in the West, including a foiled U.S. military base shooting in Michigan and a deadly vehicular attack in New Orleans.
Analysis
The collapse of centralized authority in Syria following the downfall of Bashar al-Assad has created fertile ground for ISIS’s resurgence. Capitalizing on a lack of control by Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the overextension of Kurdish forces, ISIS operatives have intensified recruitment—particularly of disillusioned foreign fighters, including Uyghurs, Chechens, and Uzbeks. A recently circulated leaflet in rebel-held Syria directly appealed to such individuals, urging them to “repent and join the Islamic State” and accusing HTS of betraying the jihad by seeking international legitimacy.
This messaging is working in tandem with rising instability across the globe. In Mozambique, ISIS militants overran a military camp in Cabo Delgado, seizing an arsenal of weapons including Chinese airburst rockets, RPG launchers, and Serbian mortars. Meanwhile, ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) has become the organization’s most aggressive branch, plotting or carrying out 21 external attacks in nine countries over the last year, including the March 2024 massacre at a Moscow mall that left 150 dead.
In the U.S., ISIS sympathizers remain an active threat. Just this week, 19-year-old Ammar Abdulmajid-Mohamed Said was arrested in Michigan after plotting a mass shooting at a U.S. Army facility in Warren. A former member of the National Guard, Said provided armor-piercing ammunition, scouted the base with a drone, and trained undercover agents in making Molotov cocktails. He now faces up to 40 years in prison.
Separately, the New Year’s Day terrorist attack in New Orleans—where 14 were killed and over 35 wounded—was carried out by Shamsud-Din Jabbar, an Army veteran found with an ISIS flag. FBI officials are investigating whether he acted alone or as part of a broader cell, underscoring the group’s continuing ability to inspire lone actors in the West.
Despite being territorially diminished in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has increased its activity across new provinces in Africa—especially Mali, Somalia, and Mozambique—where it controls territory and builds resource pipelines. Its financial networks also remain robust, with recent U.S. sanctions targeting crypto-financed operatives in Turkey and Egypt.
The Soufan Center has reported that ISIS attacks in Syria tripled in 2024, with U.S. Central Command launching strikes on 75 targets just days after Assad’s fall. Commanders warn that if the 8,000 ISIS prisoners in northeast Syria were to escape due to Kurdish overstretch or foreign intervention (especially from Turkey), it would trigger a full-blown regional security crisis.
Even within Western nations, a steady drumbeat of ISIS-related arrests continues—470 cases across 49 countries in the past year. ISIS-K plots have particularly surged, and countries such as Germany, Sweden, and Morocco have all seen foreign fighter pipelines and homegrown radicalization linked to the group.
Amid this resurgence, the Trump administration faces renewed pressure to retain its counterterrorism presence in Syria, despite Turkish demands for Kurdish disarmament. Analysts agree that any premature withdrawal would be catastrophic, not only reigniting regional jihad but giving ISIS a propaganda victory and a platform for future operations.
