NCTC Bulletin Warns of Persistent Al-Qa‘ida Threat Following Calls for U.S. Attacks

Executive Summary

The National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) has issued an unclassified bulletin warning that al-Qa‘ida and its Yemen-based affiliate, al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), remain committed to conducting attacks against the U.S. homeland. Recent propaganda—including two editions of AQAP’s Inspire Guide and a video by leader Sa’d Atif al-Aulaqi—urges attacks against U.S. government officials, law enforcement, symbolic targets, and mass gatherings. While the group’s operational capacity remains diminished compared to its peak, its calls for violence highlight enduring intent and a persistent risk of lone-actor or inspired attacks.

Key Judgments

1. Al-Qa‘ida and AQAP are escalating propaganda campaigns to incite attacks in the United States.
Evidence: AQAP released back-to-back editions of its English-language Inspire Guide in June and July 2025, celebrating recent U.S. attacks and calling for violence using simple methods such as knives, firearms, and vehicle-rammings.

2. Leadership messaging has explicitly targeted U.S. government officials and institutions.
Evidence: In June, AQAP leader Sa’d Atif al-Aulaqi issued a video calling for attacks on the U.S. President, Vice President, Cabinet members, Congress, their families, and at least one private citizen, framing the violence as legitimate “reciprocity.”

3. Target themes reflect al-Qa‘ida’s historical focus on aviation, symbolic, and government-related targets.
Evidence: The bulletin highlights continuity with post-9/11 plots, including aviation, high-profile symbolic sites, and U.S. officials, suggesting propaganda serves to recycle enduring attack concepts.

4. AQAP remains the most credible al-Qa‘ida affiliate capable of external operations against the U.S.
Evidence: AQAP was behind the 2009 “underwear bomber” plot, the 2010 cargo plane explosives plot, and the 2019 Pensacola naval base attack. The NCTC bulletin underscores its unique history of enabling homeland attacks.

5. While al-Qa‘ida’s operational strength is diminished, its ability to inspire lone actors sustains risk.
Evidence: Analysts note al-Qa‘ida has not directed a large-scale attack in the West in years, but persistent calls to action—particularly tied to U.S. support for Israel and global conflicts—could motivate individuals already radicalized online.

Analysis

The NCTC bulletin illustrates how al-Qa‘ida, though weakened as a centralized organization, continues to prioritize propaganda as a tool to inspire attacks in the U.S. homeland. AQAP’s repeated releases of Inspire Guide in quick succession suggest an effort to regain momentum by leveraging global events, particularly the Gaza conflict and U.S. foreign policy, to energize sympathizers. This marks a continuation of al-Qa‘ida’s long-standing strategy of encouraging low-cost, simple attacks that are difficult for security services to prevent.

Sa’d Atif al-Aulaqi’s direct threats against U.S. leadership are particularly concerning. By naming senior officials and their families, AQAP elevates the risk of targeted violence, while reinforcing the group’s broader narrative that U.S. civilian and military leaders are legitimate targets. The specificity of these threats may not reflect operational capability, but rather a propaganda tactic aimed at radicalizing supporters and amplifying AQAP’s profile amid competition with the Islamic State.

The persistence of themes such as aviation and symbolic targets reflects continuity in al-Qa‘ida’s worldview. While U.S. counterterrorism efforts have significantly constrained the group’s ability to execute large-scale coordinated attacks, its propaganda continues to revisit these targets, reinforcing their symbolic resonance among potential lone actors. AQAP’s history as the only affiliate to successfully enable an attack in the homeland underscores its role as the most credible external threat vector.

The bulletin also highlights the importance of vigilance at public gatherings and among officials, reinforcing the need for proactive security measures, information sharing, and digital awareness. Though al-Qa‘ida has been overshadowed by the Islamic State in recent years, its persistent ideological drive and propaganda efforts ensure it remains a latent and evolving threat.

Sources

• NCTC – Al-Qa‘ida’s Recent Calls to Conduct Attacks Highlights Enduring Threat (PDF)

• ODNI Press Release – NCTC Supports Law Enforcement with Al-Qa‘ida Threat Bulletin

• Reuters – US National Counterterrorism Center warns of al-Qaeda attack threats

• CTC Sentinel – The Global State of al-Qa‘ida 24 Years After 9/11