India-Pakistan Ceasefire: We’re Not Out of the Woods Yet
Executive Summary
After a week of tit-for-tat missile and drone attacks that pushed India and Pakistan closer to full-scale war, the two nuclear-armed nations agreed to a surprise ceasefire on May 10. Though the announcement brought immediate relief, the path to lasting peace remains uncertain. The escalation was sparked by a massacre of tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi blamed on Pakistani-backed militants. Both sides exchanged airstrikes and suffered civilian casualties before U.S.-brokered diplomacy halted the spiral. While leaders on both sides hailed the agreement, deep-rooted mistrust and the volatile Kashmir issue continue to threaten regional stability.
Analysis
The ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan comes after one of the most dangerous escalations in the region in recent memory. The flashpoint for the conflict was a brutal April 22 attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, that left 26 civilians—mostly Indian tourists—dead. India blamed Pakistan for harboring the group responsible and responded with airstrikes targeting military sites in both Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir under what it called “Operation Sindoor.”
Pakistan retaliated with “Operation Banyan al-Marsous,” launching medium-range Fateh missiles at Indian airbases in Pathankot and Udhampur and claiming they had successfully intercepted most Indian missiles. The conflict rapidly escalated into cross-border drone attacks, artillery fire, and heavy civilian casualties on both sides of the Line of Control.
While both nations claimed defensive motives, the scale and proximity of the attacks to major cities like Rawalpindi and Jammu marked a dramatic increase in hostilities. According to Pakistan’s military, India targeted three air bases near major population centers, prompting a “well-coordinated” response. India countered that Pakistan struck civilian areas, religious sites, and medical facilities in a disproportionate response.
The ceasefire, surprisingly announced by U.S. President Donald Trump via social media, came after a night of behind-the-scenes diplomacy involving Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and both nations’ military leadership. Despite Indian officials insisting the truce was worked out “directly” between New Delhi and Islamabad, Pakistani and U.S. sources credit Washington’s mediation with breaking the impasse. Rubio later confirmed that talks would continue at a neutral site and praised both Prime Ministers for their “prudence and statesmanship.”
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar emphasized that Islamabad acted in defense and was committed to peace, though he accused India of unprovoked aggression. India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri echoed the desire for stability but remained vague about long-term diplomacy. Military leaders from both countries are expected to speak again on May 12.
Civilian tolls from the brief conflict were severe. Pakistan said 11 people, including a child, were killed in overnight Indian strikes, and over 1,000 residents were displaced. In India-administered Kashmir, at least one senior official was confirmed dead, with infrastructure and homes damaged by Pakistani shelling and drone attacks. Reports from the ground in cities like Srinagar and Jammu described a war-like environment with explosions shaking neighborhoods near airports and army bases.
The conflict’s financial and geopolitical costs are already evident. India raised objections at the IMF over a newly approved $1 billion disbursement to Pakistan, citing concerns about misused funds supporting terrorism. Meanwhile, China expressed “deep concern” and signaled readiness to mediate, aligning with its broader strategic interest in Pakistan via the Belt and Road Initiative.
Despite the ceasefire, analysts caution against optimism. South Asia expert Michael Kugelman warned that escalation dynamics remain “extremely concerning” and that neither side seems willing to claim victory or make concessions on Kashmir. With no agreement on resolving the root cause—the territorial dispute over Kashmir—the potential for renewed conflict remains dangerously high.
