Iran’s Alleged Coup Plot Against Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa Uncovered
Executive Summary
Reports indicate that Iran, alongside former Assad-era Syrian generals and allied militant groups, convened a secret meeting in Najaf, Iraq, to plan a coup against Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. The meeting, reportedly led by senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) figures, involved strategizing an assassination attempt on Sharaa and mobilizing support from Hezbollah, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the PKK, and ISIS-linked elements. The plan allegedly includes smuggling fighters and weapons through Iraq, Lebanon, and the Mediterranean, with the goal of destabilizing Syria and regaining Iranian influence after Assad’s fall.
Analysis
Iran’s geopolitical strategy in the Levant has suffered significant setbacks following the removal of Bashar al-Assad. Tehran’s long-standing influence in Syria—achieved through direct military intervention and support for proxies such as Hezbollah—has been challenged by the new Syrian government, which has distanced itself from Iran and aligned more closely with regional powers like Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
The reports from Turkish and Syrian sources suggest a multi-pronged Iranian operation that seeks to exploit ethnic and sectarian divisions to destabilize Syria from within. Iran’s use of proxy groups—including the IRGC Quds Force, Hezbollah, and Shiite militias from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (Zainabiyoun and Fatemiyoun Brigades)—aligns with its broader strategy of asymmetric warfare and hybrid conflict.
The alleged assassination plot against Sharaa is particularly alarming, as it signals Iran’s intent to escalate beyond indirect influence and into direct intervention. Given Iran’s history of targeted assassinations and covert operations, such a move would not be unprecedented. However, the involvement of groups like ISIS and the PKK raises questions about tactical alliances that defy ideological boundaries, indicating Iran’s willingness to leverage any militant force to achieve its objectives.
If confirmed, this Iranian operation risks further destabilizing Syria and could trigger international intervention. The U.S. and regional actors such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel may respond with countermeasures, including economic sanctions, military action, or increased support for anti-Iranian factions in Syria.
