A US or Israeli ground raid to physically retrieve Iran's 440.9 kg of 60 percent enriched uranium from the Isfahan tunnel complex is now an active policy option whose probability has risen with MOU collapse.

FBI arrested Iranian green card holder Shamim Mafi at LAX on April 19 for brokering $70.6M in Iranian Mohajer-6 drones, bombs, and ammunition to Sudan's military via an Oman front company, with alleged direct contact with Iran MOIS from 2022 to 2025. She faces up to 20 years in federal prison.

Iran opened a narrow Hormuz corridor for the ceasefire period while Trump claimed Iran agreed to indefinitely suspend uranium enrichment and hand over enriched material. The US blockade continues. Oil fell 10 percent. Iran has not confirmed nuclear terms publicly. The April 21 ceasefire expiry is the next decision point.

Congress returned April 14 with Democrats forcing war powers votes in both chambers; the May 1 WPR 60-day deadline creates the most significant domestic legislative test of the Iran war, with Republican defection margins remain

The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, announced after the collapse of 21-hour direct talks in Islamabad, marks the most significant escalation of the conflict's diplomatic dimension. Iranian defiance and Chinese non-compliance with the blockade raise the prospect of both a military confrontation at sea and a test of great-power solidarity.

Shin Bet arrested a Haifa resident who manufactured 8 to 10 kilograms of explosives for an Iranian handler targeting former PM Bennett; a second disrupted plot in 30 days reflects an Iranian campaign to target Israeli political figures through locally recruited operatives using financial incentives and graduated tasking.