Madagascar’s President Denounces “Coup Attempt” Amid Deadly Gen Z-Led Protests
Executive Summary
Madagascar is experiencing its most serious political unrest in years as youth-led demonstrations—organized largely by the Gen Z movement—demand President Andry Rajoelina’s resignation over chronic mismanagement of electricity, water, and public services. At least 22 people have been killed and more than 100 injured since protests erupted September 25, according to the United Nations, though the government disputes the figures. Rajoelina responded by dismissing his government, denouncing what he termed a foreign-backed “coup attempt,” and warning of cyber manipulation. The protests, drawing comparisons to recent youth movements in Asia and Africa, now pose a direct challenge to his leadership and threaten further instability in the Indian Ocean nation.
Key Judgments
The Gen Z movement represents an unprecedented youth-driven mobilization against Madagascar’s political elite.
Evidence: Protests have been organized via social media, with demonstrators adopting global youth protest symbols, including the “One Piece” skull flag, and calling for direct involvement in selecting new leadership.Security forces’ heavy-handed response has escalated tensions and risks radicalizing the movement.
Evidence: The UN reports live ammunition, beatings, and tear gas were used on largely peaceful demonstrators, contributing to at least 22 deaths. The government has denied these figures but offered no alternative numbers.Rajoelina’s dismissal of his government is a tactical concession but falls short of addressing protesters’ demands.
Evidence: While the prime minister and cabinet were dismissed, protesters have insisted on Rajoelina’s resignation, pledging “all necessary measures” if demands are unmet.The government is framing the protests as externally manipulated to delegitimize them and retain control.
Evidence: Rajoelina and the foreign minister accused unnamed foreign agencies of launching cyberattacks and digital manipulation campaigns to stoke unrest.The unrest risks evolving into a broader national crisis combining political instability, economic disruption, and union-led strikes.
Evidence: Customs, prison staff, and utility unions have announced strikes, while opposition parties have thrown support behind the protests, creating a rare united front against the president.
Analysis
The Gen Z-led protests in Madagascar reflect both domestic grievances and the global resonance of youth-driven political mobilization. Chronic power outages, water shortages, and entrenched corruption have created fertile ground for anger among a population where three-quarters live in poverty. By adopting recognizable global protest symbols and harnessing digital platforms, Gen Z organizers have captured national attention and aligned themselves with broader youth activism trends in Asia and Africa.
Rajoelina’s government is struggling to maintain legitimacy. His decision to dismiss the prime minister and cabinet was a calculated move to diffuse tensions, but it sidesteps the central demand: his own resignation. The accusations of a foreign-backed “coup attempt” serve a dual purpose—discrediting the protest movement and justifying intensified security crackdowns. However, this framing risks alienating Madagascar’s youth even further, especially as casualties mount.
The situation carries significant risks for political stability and governance. Union-led strikes and cross-sector opposition support suggest the protests could widen into a national movement capable of paralyzing government functions. The longer Rajoelina resists calls for resignation, the greater the likelihood of escalating violence, especially if security forces continue to use live ammunition. International actors, including the UN, are likely to pressure the government for accountability, but geopolitical competition in the Indian Ocean region could complicate responses if claims of foreign interference persist.
