Southern Transitional Council Advance in Hadramawt Signals a New Phase in Yemen’s Fragmentation
Executive Summary
The Southern Transitional Council’s rapid seizure of major population centers and military sites in Hadramawt Valley marks a major shift in Yemen’s decade-long conflict and highlights growing fractures among anti-Houthi factions. The move strengthens the council’s bid for southern statehood, threatens Saudi interests in eastern Yemen, and risks escalating into a wider regional competition between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
Analysis
The Southern Transitional Council’s ability to overrun key areas of Hadramawt with little resistance shows its growing military confidence and intent to reshape territorial control before any national settlement. The advance also suggests that rival forces aligned with the internationally recognized government and tribes backed by Saudi Arabia were either unwilling or unable to hold ground, opening space for the council to consolidate authority across the south.
STC forces captured Seiyun and other major civilian and military sites on 3 December after only limited clashes with First Military Region units.
STC officials stated their goal was to control all of Hadramawt and end what they described as security breakdowns and exploitation by outside forces.
Reports from residents said many government troops fled quickly, making the takeover resemble a handover more than a battle.
The advance heightens tensions between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, both key players in the anti-Houthi coalition but increasingly supporting different proxies in Yemen. The STC’s push toward strategic oil infrastructure and its willingness to challenge tribal forces tied to Riyadh threatens Saudi influence in the east and increases the chance of further clashes.
Saudi envoys arrived in Hadramawt immediately after the STC advance and called for the withdrawal of forces that entered from outside the region.
Tribal leader Amr bin Habresh, backed by Saudi Arabia, deployed his fighters around PetroMasila oil facilities in late November and vowed to resist any STC effort to approach the fields.
PetroMasila halted production on 2 December due to the growing standoff, causing widespread power outages across the region.
Hadramawt’s fragmentation and the STC’s expanding footprint deepen the likelihood that Yemen will move toward an informal or formal partition. The council is attempting to secure frontiers and resources before any Saudi-Houthi deal becomes final, and its next moves into al-Mahra would place nearly all of the former South Yemen under its control. This could harden dividing lines across the country and complicate any future national political structure.
Residents in seized areas expressed fatigue with instability and signaled they might accept whichever authority can restore basic services, underscoring how governance failures continue to drive local loyalties in Yemen’s conflict zones.
