Anti-War Aggression Against the West Highly Likely to Continue as Wars Drag On With No End in Sight
Executive Summary
With no credible ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough on the horizon in Gaza, Ukraine, or the wider Middle East, anti-Western aggression—from both state and non-state actors—is likely to escalate. The persistence and global visibility of multiple, unresolved wars are fueling radicalization, propaganda, and a growing willingness to move from protest to violence across the West. Russia and Iran are intensifying hybrid and proxy attacks, while anarchist and radical networks in the U.S. and Europe are adopting increasingly sophisticated propaganda and kinetic tactics, making future attacks and sabotage highly likely.
Key Judgements
1. The ongoing conflict in Gaza continues to act as a catalyst for radicalization and direct action in the West, with anti-war networks exploiting the narrative of Western complicity to legitimize violent acts.
Evidence: Recent arson attacks in Brooklyn and Berlin, and anarchist manifestos like that of Jakhi McCray, explicitly cite Gaza and the Palestinian struggle as justification for sabotage and property destruction (Semper Incolumem, Middle East Monitor).
2. State actors, particularly Iran and Russia, are demonstrating increased boldness in both direct and hybrid operations, signaling preparation for continued or renewed conflict in the absence of meaningful negotiations or de-escalation.
Evidence: Iran’s rearming of proxies and missile/drone attacks after ceasefire breakdowns; Russia’s use of Wagner Group proxies for sabotage in the UK, and open threats over NATO’s posture in the Baltics (Semper Incolumem, UK Government, Long War Journal).
3. Sophisticated propaganda and operational guides circulated by extremist networks are blurring the line between activism and terrorism, directly inspiring and instructing attacks on Western targets.
Evidence: Distribution of highly personal manifestos and operational manuals by groups such as Unity of Fields, which openly call for armed insurgency and provide tactical guidance for sabotage (Semper Incolumem).
Analysis
The current strategic environment for the West is characterized by entrenched, overlapping conflicts, high levels of polarization, and the absence of credible diplomatic off-ramps. In Gaza, Hamas and other Palestinian factions categorically reject disarmament absent a sovereign state, and Israeli operations continue amid growing international condemnation and a humanitarian crisis. Iran, facing its own direct strikes and persistent covert action, is hardening its posture, rearming proxies, and sustaining a steady pace of missile and drone attacks against Western and allied targets. Russia, undeterred by new sanctions and diplomatic efforts, is intensifying sabotage, cyber operations, and kinetic attacks on European soil.
These wars, far from remaining “over there,” now drive a direct feedback loop of radicalization and action within the West. Radical left and anarchist networks, fueled by the images and narratives of Gaza and Ukraine, are increasingly moving from protest to violent direct action. Sophisticated propaganda efforts—such as the visually driven, personalized manifesto of Jakhi McCray or the incendiary guidance from Unity of Fields—are not merely venting anger but actively seeking to inspire, justify, and instruct further violence. The operational focus has shifted from symbolic protest to kinetic attacks on police, defense contractors, cloud service providers, and telecom infrastructure deemed complicit in state violence.
At the same time, states such as Russia and Iran are demonstrating greater willingness to use proxies or even conduct direct attacks on Western soil. The UK’s exposure of GRU-led sabotage plots and the use of Wagner operatives for arson inside London indicate an expanded playbook and a reduced aversion to escalation. NATO’s recalibration in the Baltics, and the explicit nuclear threats from Russian officials, further underscore the risk of miscalculation and rapid escalation.
Diplomatically, Western efforts to pressure adversaries—be it through ultimatums, sanctions, or displays of force—have thus far yielded little. Both Iran and Russia perceive themselves as under existential threat, while internal narratives frame Western actions as aggression justifying retaliation. In this climate, the operational tempo of both state and non-state attacks will almost certainly increase. Intelligence and law enforcement agencies face an unprecedented challenge as radicalization spreads via decentralized, digitally networked propaganda, and the lines between activism and terrorism blur.
Looking forward, the West should expect not only continued hybrid and proxy attacks from Iran, Russia, and their partners, but also an increased tempo of ideologically motivated sabotage and violence from homegrown radical networks. The combination of persistent conflict abroad, political polarization at home, and the growing sophistication of extremist propaganda ensures that anti-war aggression against the West will remain a persistent and escalating threat.
