ISIS Resurgence Accelerates Across Fragile States as Sahel Becomes Global Terror Epicenter

Executive Summary

Despite years of U.S. intervention and targeted operations, ISIS is resurging in fragile states from Syria and Iraq to parts of Africa. In the wake of U.S. drawdowns and shifting alliances, ISIS and affiliated jihadist groups are exploiting power vacuums, weakened governments, and economic instability. The Sahel region in Africa is now considered the world’s terrorism epicenter, heightening concerns about transnational threats, including those directed at the U.S. homeland.

Strategic Analysis

The resurgence of ISIS in Syria and Iraq is accelerating, largely due to reduced American military presence and the destabilization following the fall of the Assad regime. Fighters are reestablishing themselves in key urban centers such as Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor, and Kirkuk, leveraging weakened security infrastructure and reduced coalition patrols. The estimated 1,500 to 3,000 remaining ISIS fighters are conducting sabotage attacks on infrastructure and utilizing sleeper cells and online recruitment to sustain a low-intensity insurgency. The reactivation of cells and weapons distribution marks a shift in ISIS's posture from dormancy to offensive planning, with at least a dozen plots reportedly thwarted this year.

Simultaneously, the Sahel region—specifically Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—is now considered the global epicenter of terrorism. U.S. Africa Command has warned of terrorist factions increasing their capacity to project attacks beyond Africa, including into the U.S. homeland. This expansion coincides with reduced Western influence and military cooperation, as Russia and China deepen ties with regional governments. Al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM now controls large swaths of territory, and both al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked elements are expanding their logistical reach, seeking coastal access to support smuggling and weapons trafficking.

The African theater is increasingly volatile. ISIS-linked insurgents in Mozambique have executed deadly attacks on conservation facilities, exposing new civilian targets and demonstrating adaptability. In Somalia, the U.S. has doubled airstrikes in 2025, indicating persistent threats from ISIS-Somalia and al-Shabaab, both of which continue to pursue regional dominance and external attacks.

The broader security implications are profound. In Syria and Iraq, governance vacuums and sectarian divides hinder counterinsurgency efforts. In Africa, the diminished U.S. footprint is impeding intelligence gathering and rapid-response capabilities, potentially enabling jihadist groups to entrench further and globalize their operations. While ISIS may not reestablish a caliphate soon, the growing insurgent infrastructure across multiple continents suggests a long war of attrition, requiring more coordinated and sustained counterterrorism strategies among global partners.

Sources

• NewsNation – "Islamic State resurgence spreads across Syria and Iraq"

• Al Jazeera – "ISIL (ISIS) launches first attacks against new Syrian government"

• Rudaw – "Kurdish-led forces arrest ten ISIS suspects in east Syria"

• Hawar News – "ISIS reactivating fighters, eying comeback in Syria, Iraq"

• ABC News – "Africa terror group ramping up ability to strike inside the US"

• Mongabay – "Mozambique nature reserve faces ‘new reality’ after terror attacks"

• Air & Space Forces Magazine – "US Has Doubled Its Airstrikes in Somalia, Surpassing 2024 Levels"