Israel Intensifies Direct Outreach to Iranian Public as Tehran Prepares for Potential War

Strategic Intelligence Report
Written By Matt Helmkamp

Executive Summary

Israel is escalating its direct engagement with the Iranian public, exploiting domestic dissatisfaction over governance and resource crises to encourage opposition to the Islamic Republic. The campaign coincides with Tehran’s revival of its wartime Defense Council, signaling preparations for a renewed conflict with Israel and potentially the United States. This intensifying war of narratives and covert actions is unfolding alongside heightened proxy activity, mysterious internal sabotage incidents, and hardline statements from Hezbollah and the Lebanese Army, indicating that the next escalation could encompass multiple fronts.

Key Judgments

  1. Israel is leveraging Iran’s worsening domestic crises to intensify psychological operations aimed at weakening regime legitimacy and fomenting unrest.

    Evidence: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s August 12 televised offer of desalination technology to Iranians, calls for street protests, and similar statements by senior Israeli officials, including Naftali Bennett and Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, coincided with messaging about regime collapse (Long War Journal).

  2. Tehran’s reactivation of the Defense Council, last used during the Iran–Iraq War, reflects a significant shift toward centralized wartime decision-making in anticipation of renewed hostilities.

    Evidence: The Defense Council’s permanent integration of both the Artesh and IRGC was announced August 3, with Iranian leadership citing heightened threats from Israel as justification (Long War Journal).

  3. Israeli covert operations inside Iran continue to degrade regime security and morale, aided by Iranian nationals motivated by personal and political grievances.

    Evidence: ProPublica reporting cited by Israeli sources attributes sabotage successes—such as breaking into safes, setting up automated weapons, and breaching air defenses—to Iranian or third-country operatives, not Israelis (Long War Journal).

  4. The ongoing shadow war between Israel and Iran is producing frequent internal sabotage incidents that Tehran downplays to maintain stability, but which likely represent persistent Israeli operational reach.

    Evidence: More than 30 unexplained explosions and fires occurred between June 25 and August 7 across multiple Iranian provinces, many targeting economic and military-linked sites (Long War Journal).

  5. Hezbollah and the Lebanese Army are adopting an openly confrontational posture toward Israel, suggesting that any renewed Israel–Iran conflict could rapidly expand into a regional war.

    Evidence: Hezbollah leadership rejected disarmament, warned that Israeli security could “collapse in one hour” during a large-scale offensive, and the Lebanese Army Commander declared “no choice” but to confront Israeli attacks (Al-Manar, Al-Manar).

Analysis

Israel’s stepped-up outreach to the Iranian public marks a deliberate expansion of its influence operations beyond military deterrence into overt political warfare. By offering humanitarian assistance such as desalination technology while calling for mass protests, Jerusalem is framing itself as an ally to the Iranian people and an enemy only of the regime. This dual narrative aims to deepen public resentment toward Tehran’s leadership at a time when resource shortages—particularly water—are a national vulnerability. The messaging is reinforced by senior Israeli military officials’ warnings that Israel is prepared to strike Iran directly, sustaining a climate of pressure.

Tehran’s revival of the Defense Council represents more than bureaucratic restructuring; it is a war-readiness move intended to streamline decision-making between the conventional military and the IRGC in the event of a major escalation. This structure mirrors wartime governance during the 1980s conflict with Iraq, underscoring the regime’s expectation that the next conflict could be prolonged and existential. The Council’s formation, alongside recent military mobilizations, indicates that Iran is preparing for both conventional defense and asymmetric retaliation via its regional proxies.

Israeli covert action inside Iran remains a critical element of its strategy. Operations ranging from high-profile assassinations to precision sabotage have been facilitated by local operatives, revealing not only the Mossad’s operational reach but also the extent of domestic disaffection within Iran. The tempo of these actions—over 30 sabotage incidents in just six weeks—suggests a sustained campaign to degrade Iran’s military-industrial base, sow doubt in regime competence, and shape the battlespace before any overt conflict resumes.

The risk of a multi-front war is amplified by Hezbollah’s and the Lebanese Army’s increasingly hardline statements. Hezbollah’s categorical rejection of disarmament, coupled with threats to unleash mass rocket fire if attacked, indicates readiness to escalate rapidly in concert with Iranian objectives. The Lebanese Army’s open willingness to confront Israel militarily—despite its traditional avoidance of direct engagement—marks a notable escalation in rhetoric and potentially in posture. If war resumes between Israel and Iran, these dynamics could quickly draw Lebanon into a wider regional conflict, complicating Israel’s operational priorities and increasing the risk of miscalculation.

The diplomatic backdrop remains tense. Iran continues limited nuclear talks with the European troika while publicly condemning Israeli and U.S. strikes as violations of international law. However, these talks are unlikely to yield concessions given Tehran’s entrenched narrative of resistance and its investment in a deterrent posture. For Israel, the combination of military pressure, covert action, and psychological operations appears designed to set conditions for regime destabilization, or at minimum, to force Tehran into a defensive crouch ahead of future conflicts.

Sources

Matt Helmkamp
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