Lift The Ban Protest – August 9th Threat Assessment Report
Executive Summary
The “Lift The Ban” protest scheduled for August 9th, 2025, in London is a mass-participatory direct action organized by Defend Our Juries and allied groups in response to the UK government's proscription of Palestine Action as a terrorist organization. The protest is framed as a symbolic stand for civil liberties, but it is inherently high-risk due to the contentious political climate, the terrorism designation, and ongoing legal uncertainties. The overall threat to this event is High due to the likelihood of arrests, potential confrontations with law enforcement, and the possible activation of violent actors or counter-protestors.
Threat Profiles
Law Enforcement Confrontation
The most likely threat at this protest is aggressive enforcement of the Terrorism Act 2000, particularly Sections 12 and 13, which have already resulted in over 200 arrests in previous weeks for nonviolent expression. Given the protest’s explicit goal to test this law, and that the Metropolitan Police are pre-alerted, mass arrests are highly probable. While the risk of lethal force is low due to the nonviolent and stationary nature of the protest, consequences include severe injury from crowd control tactics (e.g., kettling, baton use), psychological harm, and reputational damage due to the framing of protesters as “terrorist supporters.” The sheer volume of participants—upwards of 500—may overstrain policing capacity, increasing the risk of escalation or procedural failure in detainee handling.
Likelihood: High
Consequence: High (mass arrest, injuries, reputational fallout)
Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED)
Although no credible threat has been identified, the symbolic nature of the protest, the targeting of UK defense infrastructure by Palestine Action in prior actions, and the high visibility of the August 9th protest in central London elevate VBIED to a plausible though low-probability risk. VBIEDs can be deployed by extremist counter-protestors or lone actors seeking to exploit chaos. The dense crowd and centralized location amplify potential casualties.
Likelihood: Low
Consequence: Catastrophic (mass casualties, severe national disruption)
Active Assailant (e.g., knife or firearm attack)
Given the prominence of this event and the polarization it invites, there exists a credible risk of an active assailant attack, particularly from lone actors motivated by anti-Palestinian or nationalist ideologies. The central London location is historically secure, yet open access makes it difficult to fully prevent such incidents. A successful attack, even with a simple weapon, could result in fatalities and major panic.
Likelihood: Medium
Consequence: High (fatalities, panic, shutdowns)
Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Intrusion
The use of drones by hostile actors—including counter-protestors or journalists violating airspace laws—is an emerging threat vector. UAS could be used to surveil protestors, disrupt the action, or in worst-case scenarios, drop hazardous materials. While UK counter-UAS capability exists, urban density and public visibility limit rapid mitigation.
Likelihood: Medium
Consequence: Moderate (privacy violations, panic, minor injuries)
Weather and Environmental Threats
Summer weather in London may pose risk due to high heat or unexpected storms. Prolonged sit-ins on hot pavement can result in dehydration or heat exhaustion, particularly for elderly participants or those with preexisting conditions. No weather alerts currently signal extreme heat or rain, but forecasts should be monitored.
Likelihood: Medium
Consequence: Low (mild injury, logistical disruption)
Counter-Protester Violence
Right-wing or pro-Israel counter-protesters may stage confrontations, especially in light of recent national tensions over antisemitism and public discourse on Gaza. Physical or verbal altercations are possible. Even small-scale scuffles could be used to justify a broader crackdown by law enforcement or attract media attention that undermines the protest's message.
Likelihood: Medium
Consequence: Moderate (injury, reputational damage)
Recommendations
For Law Enforcement:
Law enforcement must be adequately staffed and trained in crowd control, de-escalation, and proportional response tactics. Given the likelihood of arrest under TA s.13, Metropolitan Police should prepare for mass detention logistics while adhering to human rights obligations. All officers should wear identifiable uniforms, and communication with protest coordinators should remain open throughout.
Police surveillance teams should be briefed on the specific tactics outlined in the Palestine Action Underground Manual to differentiate protest participants from saboteurs or unauthorized agitators.
Given the decentralized threat potential, explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) units and counter-UAS teams should be on standby in strategic locations.
For Security Planners:
Pre-screen all protest areas with canine units or detection sweeps, particularly near high-profile government or defense-related sites. Deploy CCTV and mobile command units to monitor for suspicious activity, VBIED indicators, or rogue drones.
Coordinate with emergency medical services to pre-stage hydration stations and rapid response medics due to environmental threats.
Engage with local faith and civic organizations in the area to ensure community safety awareness, and prepare communication protocols in case of rapid evacuation.
Engage directly with protest organizers to receive and reciprocate risk mitigation strategies, such as the conditional commitment model and non-violence pledges.
