Mid-2025 Global Terrorism Threat: Soufan Center Highlights Expanding Technological and Geopolitical Risks
Executive Summary
The Soufan Center’s July 2025 threat assessment outlines a volatile global terrorism environment marked by resurging jihadist activity in Africa, expanding use of emerging technologies by extremist groups, and declining Western counterterrorism capacity. Key concerns include the operational resurgence of al-Shabaab and JNIM, Islamic State Khorasan Province’s (ISKP) AI-enhanced propaganda, ideological convergence among extremists, and the strategic exploitation of conflicts like Gaza by multiple actors. These developments, combined with shrinking counterterrorism budgets, increase the likelihood of both foreign-directed and domestic attacks, including on U.S. soil.
Strategic Analysis
The Soufan Center’s latest global terrorism assessment paints a complex, evolving threat landscape in mid-2025, driven by both regional insurgency dynamics and global technological shifts. Al-Qaeda, though diminished from its 9/11-era prominence, remains active through affiliates such as al-Shabaab in Somalia and JNIM in the Sahel. These groups are thriving in fragile states where state capacity is low, such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. According to the Global Terrorism Index, the Sahel remains the deadliest region for terrorism for the fourth consecutive year, with African theaters accounting for a disproportionate share of global casualties.
Simultaneously, ISKP continues to pose a threat, particularly through its digital footprint. The group’s multilingual propaganda, spread across platforms like Telegram, TikTok, and Archive.org, is suspected of incorporating generative AI to micro-target susceptible individuals globally. Its recent plots—ranging from Vienna concert threats to attacks in Türkiye and Russia—underline its operational capability, even when public activity seems reduced.
The report warns that the use of emerging technologies by terrorist actors is transitioning from novelty to norm. Artificial intelligence, smart devices, encryption, cryptocurrency, and social media are increasingly integrated into the attack planning cycle. Specific examples include the use of Meta smart glasses for surveillance, Roblox for attack planning, and ChatGPT for operational support. As technology becomes more democratized, non-state actors are not just adapting but innovating.
Another concern is ideological convergence—so-called “salad bar” terrorism. Lone actors and fringe groups now often blend ideologies, drawing simultaneously from white supremacy, anti-government militancy, violent misogyny, and neo-Luddite worldviews. These actors, difficult to profile and detect, are increasingly radicalized online via platforms like TikTok and Telegram. Notably, left-wing violence and REMVE activity have surged in parallel.
The broader geopolitical context compounds these threats. Gaza’s conflict continues to radicalize actors globally, even drawing opportunistic messaging from ideologically opposed jihadist groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda. Iran’s weakened proxies, Russia’s hybrid interference in Europe, and Syria’s post-regime-collapse instability all present exploitable crises. The specter of state-enabled or proxy-enabled terrorism has returned as a serious concern, particularly in the Middle East and South Asia.
Domestically, the United States faces an additional threat from cartels like Sinaloa and gangs like MS-13, now classified as FTOs. This may stretch already-thin counterterrorism resources. Lawmakers and intelligence professionals have raised alarms over budget reductions and strategic deprioritization of counterterrorism in favor of great power competition and AI regulation. As threats expand and mutate, capacity is shrinking—a dangerous asymmetry.
