Russia’s Expanding Nuclear Strategy: African Partnerships, Middle East Reactors, and Renewed Global Threats

Strategic Intelligence Report
Written By Matt Helmkamp

Executive Summary

Russia is simultaneously expanding its nuclear energy partnerships in Africa and the Middle East while issuing escalatory nuclear threats against the United States and NATO. Deals with Niger, Ethiopia, and Iran signal Rosatom’s growing influence in global nuclear energy markets, while military moves—ranging from bomber patrols near Alaska to submarine deployments off Japan—highlight Moscow’s willingness to project nuclear power globally. The Kremlin’s dual-track approach—commercial expansion and rhetorical threats—underscores both an effort to counter Western sanctions and to deter NATO as the Ukraine war drags on.

Key Judgments

Key Judgment 1

Russia is leveraging nuclear energy cooperation with African states such as Niger and Ethiopia to expand geopolitical influence while displacing traditional Western partners.

Evidence: Niger announced plans for two nuclear reactors with Rosatom, alongside uranium mining partnerships, after nationalizing a French-run uranium venture. Ethiopia signed an action plan with Rosatom to build a nuclear power plant as part of a strategic partnership. (RT; TV BRICS)

Key Judgment 2

The $25B Iran–Russia nuclear deal accelerates Moscow’s role in Iran’s energy infrastructure, complicating Western sanctions pressure and raising proliferation concerns.

Evidence: Tehran and Moscow signed an agreement for four reactors totaling 5,000 megawatts, days before UN “snapback” sanctions were expected, highlighting Russia’s defiance of Western restrictions. (Moscow Times)

Key Judgment 3

Russian officials, including Dmitry Medvedev, are escalating nuclear rhetoric to deter U.S. backing of Ukraine, framing long-range U.S. weapons as justification for nuclear posturing.

Evidence: Medvedev warned the U.S. that “Russia can use weapons a bomb shelter won’t protect against” in response to Trump’s support for Ukrainian strikes and Zelensky’s rhetoric. (Newsweek; NewsNation)

Key Judgment 4

Russia is signaling strategic reach through increased nuclear military deployments, notably deploying a Borei-class SSBN near Japan and nuclear-capable Tu-95 bombers near Alaska.

Evidence: Japan tracked a Borei-class submarine transiting the La Perouse Strait—the first such sighting—while NORAD intercepted Tu-95s near Alaska’s ADIZ. (USNI News; NY Post)

Key Judgment 5

Despite threats, Putin has indicated limited willingness to maintain nuclear stability by adhering to New START limits for one year after its expiration, suggesting Moscow seeks to avoid full collapse of arms control frameworks.

Evidence: Putin pledged Russia would not exceed New START warhead caps if the U.S. reciprocates, despite prior suspension of inspections. (PBS)

Key Judgment 6

Ukraine is warning of an impending arms race, framing Russia’s nuclear rhetoric and drone proliferation as precursors to destabilizing innovations, including potential nuclear-armed drones.

Evidence: Zelensky told the UN that “stopping Russia now is cheaper than guessing who will be the first to create a simple drone with a nuclear warhead.” (Ukrinform)

Analysis

Russia’s nuclear posture in 2025 reflects a multipronged strategy of expansion, deterrence, and coercive signaling. On the civilian side, Rosatom is seizing opportunities in Africa and the Middle East to fill vacuums left by Western disengagement. Niger’s pivot away from France and Ethiopia’s embrace of Russian energy highlight how Moscow is deepening ties with states hungry for infrastructure investment. These deals serve dual purposes: securing uranium supplies for Russia’s fuel cycle and embedding Moscow in the energy sovereignty narratives of developing states.

In Iran, the $25 billion reactor agreement represents both defiance of Western sanctions and a strategic alignment that complicates efforts to isolate Tehran. Rosatom’s construction footprint in Iran—longstanding since the Bushehr project—is expanding at precisely the moment when European states push to reimpose sanctions. This convergence will challenge non-proliferation regimes and embolden Iran’s push toward nuclear energy capacity, which some fear masks latent weapons potential.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin is pairing these commercial deals with stark military posturing. Medvedev’s explicit threats toward the U.S. and NATO reflect a deliberate effort to deter deeper Western involvement in Ukraine. Moscow’s repeated incursions—drone flights into NATO states, bomber patrols near Alaska, submarine deployments near Japan—are designed to test NATO response cycles and highlight Russia’s enduring nuclear reach. The presence of Borei-class submarines in East Asia is particularly notable, signaling Moscow’s intent to project deterrence not just against NATO but also into the Indo-Pacific, where Chinese and Russian naval movements increasingly overlap.

Yet, Russia is also hedging. Putin’s willingness to honor New START limits for one year beyond its expiration is an attempt to portray Moscow as a responsible actor even as it suspends inspections and undermines treaty enforcement. This reflects a dual-track calculus: preserve strategic stability where useful, but leverage ambiguity to threaten escalation.

From Kyiv’s perspective, the risk is clear: Russia’s nuclear rhetoric, combined with advancing drone technologies, risks ushering in a destabilizing arms race. Zelensky’s warnings about nuclear-armed drones underscore fears that Moscow may seek new delivery systems outside traditional treaty constraints.

For the United States and its allies, the convergence of Russia’s nuclear energy expansion, escalatory rhetoric, and strategic signaling demands recalibrated responses. Washington must weigh how to balance deterrence with arms control overtures, counter Russia’s influence in African and Middle Eastern nuclear markets, and guard against the erosion of global non-proliferation norms.

Sources

Matt Helmkamp
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