Sunni–Shia Divide & Clashes: History, Doctrine, and Modern Geopolitics
Executive Summary
The Sunni–Shia schism began as a succession dispute but has since evolved into a deep-seated religious and geopolitical fault line across the Muslim world. While historical and doctrinal differences remain relevant, contemporary conflicts are largely driven by state-sponsored sectarianism, militant networks, and strategic rivalry—especially between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Recent sectarian violence in places like Pakistan’s Kurram District underscores how the divide continues to manifest in deadly, destabilizing ways.
Strategic Analysis
The origin of the Sunni–Shia split lies in the succession crisis that followed the death of Prophet Muhammad in 632 AD. Sunnis accepted the legitimacy of the caliphs beginning with Abu Bakr, chosen by consensus among the Prophet’s companions. In contrast, Shias insisted that leadership belonged to Ali, the Prophet’s cousin and son-in-law, and his descendants. This divide crystallized with the martyrdom of Ali’s son Husayn at Karbala in 680 AD, an event that continues to shape Shia identity, especially during commemorations like Ashura. Over the centuries, doctrinal differences grew: Sunnis adhere to four main legal schools, whereas Twelver Shias developed distinct beliefs including the authority of a hidden Imam and the importance of clerical guidance through the concept of velayat-e faqih, particularly institutionalized in Iran.
In modern times, the theological divergence has been overshadowed by geopolitical competition, especially between Shia-majority Iran and Sunni-dominated Saudi Arabia. Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution marked a significant turning point, positioning Tehran as a patron of Shia movements across the region. Riyadh, in turn, doubled down on its Wahhabi foundations, promoting anti-Shia rhetoric and supporting Sunni movements and clerics to counter Iranian influence. The rivalry between the two has fueled proxy conflicts in several countries. In Syria, Iran backs President Bashar al-Assad’s Alawite regime, while Saudi Arabia has supported various Sunni opposition factions. In Iraq, the fall of Saddam Hussein and the rise of Shia-dominated governance created a new axis of sectarian tension, with Iranian-backed militias confronting Sunni insurgencies. Yemen remains another battleground where Iran supports the Houthi movement while a Saudi-led coalition fights to restore a Sunni-aligned government.
This broader rivalry filters into regions with complex sectarian dynamics, such as Pakistan. In November 2024, Pakistan’s Kurram District saw one of the deadliest outbreaks of sectarian violence in years. A Shia convoy returning from pilgrimage in Iran was ambushed by Sunni militants, leading to the deaths of over 50 people. This triggered retaliatory attacks, pushing the casualty toll beyond 130. Despite ceasefires and military intervention, violence flared again in early 2025, including the beheading of tribal leaders and the torching of homes. The area, with a mixed Sunni-Shia population and a history of sectarian tension, serves as a microcosm of the broader Sunni–Shia conflict: grievances rooted in identity and historical trauma are exacerbated by weapons, weak governance, and external ideological influence. These dynamics often overwhelm local reconciliation efforts.
Despite recent diplomatic overtures between Iran and Saudi Arabia, including talks mediated by China and Qatar, the sectarian infrastructure built over decades continues to sustain violence and distrust. In many cases, sectarian identity has become a proxy for other political and economic grievances. The involvement of non-state actors, such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, complicates resolution efforts. These groups operate with varying degrees of state support, allowing governments plausible deniability while pursuing sectarian agendas. At the same time, digital platforms have amplified sectarian propaganda, radicalizing individuals far from the frontlines.
The enduring relevance of the Sunni–Shia divide in modern geopolitics cannot be understood solely through theology. It is a dynamic fusion of history, identity, and power. As long as regional actors continue to exploit sectarianism for strategic gain, localized violence—from the streets of Baghdad to the mountains of Kurram—will persist. The real challenge is not merely theological reconciliation but the dismantling of institutionalized sectarianism, backed by credible political reform, justice for victims, and the curbing of proxy militarism.
