Syria's Fragile Turn: Sanctions Lifted, Israel Normalization Nears, but Security and Justice Lag
Executive Summary
President Trump has ended U.S. sanctions on Syria in a bold diplomatic gambit aimed at normalizing relations, encouraging reconstruction, and integrating Syria into the Abraham Accords. Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa has agreed in principle to normalize ties with Israel and recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. However, this sweeping shift faces profound challenges at home, including a worsening security environment for religious minorities, unresolved war crimes, and a transitional justice process viewed by many as selective, opaque, and inadequate.
Strategic Analysis
The Trump administration’s decision to end longstanding U.S. sanctions on Syria marks a historic pivot, lifting a major economic blockade imposed since the Bush era. With the European Union following suit, Syria is now poised to reenter global financial and diplomatic arenas, spurred by the symbolic and strategic goal of joining the Abraham Accords. President Trump's direct engagement with interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa underscores a transactional realignment, with Syria reportedly agreeing to normalize ties with Israel and relinquish territorial claims over the Golan Heights in exchange for legitimacy, economic aid, and international investment.
This foreign policy success, however, is shadowed by severe domestic instability. On June 22, a suicide bombing at a Greek Orthodox church in Damascus killed 25 and wounded dozens. Though attributed to the Islamic State, a splinter Sunni group, Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah, claimed responsibility. The attack—the deadliest on Christians in Syria since 1860—has reignited fears among religious minorities who once found protection under the Assad regime. Despite al-Sharaa’s promises of inclusivity, public trust in the new government's ability to secure its people is eroding.
Sectarian tensions are not isolated. Recent clashes in Alawite coastal towns and Druze communities suggest the government’s grip on internal security is fragile. Christian leaders, including Patriarch John Yazigi, have publicly condemned the administration for inaction, while civilians demand more than symbolic gestures. This security vacuum is further complicated by social crackdowns—restrictions on women's dress, alcohol bans, and increasing religious pressure in secular areas—suggesting an ideological drift that alarms minorities and liberals alike.
Simultaneously, Syria's transition is marred by questions of justice. The release of known Assad-era war criminals, including Fadi Saqr, has triggered outrage. The formation of the National Commission for Transitional Justice (NCTJ) and the National Commission for the Missing have failed to inspire confidence. Critics argue that the NCTJ is narrowly focused on Assad-era crimes while ignoring atrocities by Islamist factions like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), once led by al-Sharaa himself. This selective justice approach risks deepening divisions and encouraging vigilantism. The Syrian Network for Human Rights reports over 111,000 people still missing, with rising cases of extrajudicial killings.
Despite this instability, international institutions are preparing for Syria’s reconstruction. The World Bank’s approval of a $146 million grant to rehabilitate the power grid is a critical milestone. The Syria Electricity Emergency Project (SEEP) aims to restore connectivity with Jordan and Türkiye and improve living conditions to encourage refugee returns. Yet reconstruction without reliable justice mechanisms may further entrench grievances.
A failed ISIS assassination attempt on al-Sharaa underscores the persistent threats he faces—from jihadist remnants and internal adversaries alike. While the West cautiously welcomes Syria’s reintegration, it does so amid serious reservations about security, human rights, and the credibility of its new government. Syria may be returning to the global fold, but its internal fractures—political, sectarian, judicial—suggest that normalization and recovery remain precarious and incomplete.
