Rage Against The Regime - August 2nd Threat Assessment Report
Executive Summary
The “Rage Against the Regime” protest scheduled for August 2, 2025, is a nationwide day of action organized by the 50501 Movement in opposition to the Trump administration's policies, including immigration raids, the dismantling of social programs, and perceived authoritarianism. With over 300 events planned across all 50 states, this coordinated mobilization spans urban and suburban areas, ranging from large-scale rallies in city centers to smaller protests in rural locations. The protest's scale, political targets, and emotionally charged messaging raise substantial security concerns. The overall threat to this event is High due to the credible risk of law enforcement confrontation, lone actor violence, and counter-protester disruption.
Threat Profiles
Law Enforcement Confrontation
The most probable threat to the August 2 protests is a forceful police response. In previous national actions, including "No Kings" and Fourth of July rallies, cities like Los Angeles, New York, and Salt Lake City experienced mass arrests, use of crowd control tactics such as kettling and less-lethal munitions, and heavy surveillance. In Los Angeles alone, nearly 400 protesters were detained over one weekend. Given the movement's explicit opposition to ICE operations and federal militarization, and its rhetoric invoking fascism and constitutional crisis, police may be pre-positioned in a defensive posture. National Guard presence in certain cities adds another variable. The risk is especially acute in locations with curfews, recent violence, or prior protest-related litigation. Likelihood: High
Consequence: High (mass arrests, injuries, reputational fallout, strained emergency services)
Active Assailant (e.g., Knife or Firearm Attack)
A growing pattern of lone actor and counter-protester gun threats has emerged in U.S. protests throughout 2025. Incidents in Springfield, MO; Huntington Beach, CA; Nashville, TN; and Salt Lake City have involved both legal and illegal firearm carriers, some of whom were prohibited from possessing weapons. Notably, the Salt Lake City shooting during a "No Kings" rally left one protester dead and another wounded after a perceived threat triggered armed intervention by a volunteer. These incidents reflect systemic vulnerabilities: unregulated public gun possession, inconsistent event security, and escalating polarization. A similar incident on August 2 would carry grave human and reputational costs.
Likelihood: Medium
Consequence: High (fatalities, public panic, event shutdown)
Counter-Protester Violence
Given the deeply partisan nature of this protest, and its framing as resistance to authoritarian rule, right-wing counter-protesters may mobilize. In prior protests, individuals wearing pro-Trump insignia or carrying hostile signage have instigated verbal and physical confrontations. Some counter-protesters have appeared armed, as seen in Salt Lake City and Springfield. Fringe actors may also attempt provocation to delegitimize the protests or incite violence. While the majority of these confrontations may remain limited in scale, they carry the risk of drawing in law enforcement or creating flashpoints that spiral into broader violence.
Likelihood: Medium
Consequence: Moderate to High (injury, reputational harm, escalation into wider unrest)
Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Intrusion
Drones may be deployed by journalists, activist documentarians, or hostile observers seeking to gather intelligence or disrupt the protest. While most usage is likely benign, unauthorized drones may violate FAA airspace rules or provoke panic in tightly packed protest zones. In worst-case scenarios, drones could be used for disinformation (e.g., live feeds falsely portraying events as riots) or to deliver disruptive payloads.
Likelihood: Medium
Consequence: Moderate (panic, surveillance breaches, legal violations)
Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED)
There is currently no known VBIED threat associated with the August 2 protests. However, the symbolic value of nationwide dissent, combined with static protest locations near government buildings, makes VBIED a low-probability but high-impact scenario. Past extremist plots, including ramming attacks or parked explosives, have targeted protest infrastructure. Law enforcement should remain alert to suspicious vehicles left near protest zones for prolonged periods.
Likelihood: Low
Consequence: Catastrophic (mass casualties, national disruption)
Weather and Environmental Threats
Many August 2 events are scheduled during peak heat hours, especially in cities like Phoenix, Houston, and Atlanta. Risk of dehydration, heat exhaustion, or heat stroke is elevated, particularly for elderly attendees or those without access to water or shade. Boston and coastal cities hosting outdoor festivals may also face sudden storms, which could impact stage setups and crowd safety. Organizers should monitor weather forecasts and be prepared to shift activities if conditions deteriorate.
Likelihood: Medium
Consequence: Low to Moderate (health emergencies, schedule disruption)
Recommendations
For Law Enforcement
Law enforcement should implement de-escalation protocols, maintain open lines of communication with protest marshals, and avoid heavy-handed tactics that could inflame tensions. In cities with recent history of protest violence, mobile command units and medics should be on standby. National Guard deployment must be carefully coordinated with civilian agencies to avoid jurisdictional conflict. Drone detection systems should be employed near federal sites and courthouses.
For Security Planners
Organizers should deploy trained de-escalation teams and clearly identify safety volunteers with visible gear. Centralized water and shade resources should be staged in hot climates. All events should include emergency response contacts and clearly marked evacuation routes. Partnerships with local civic groups can provide additional resources and crowd safety oversight. UAS activity should be logged and reported in real time.
