Rising Anti-Migrant Mobilization Signals Growing Polarization and Risk of Violence in Western Democracies
Executive Summary
Public protests against immigration are expanding across the United States, Europe, and Australia, driven by economic anxiety, cultural fears, and the influence of organized far-right networks. Although each country’s political context differs, the pattern is consistent: larger crowds, more confrontational rhetoric, and a stronger presence of extremist groups seeking to exploit broader public frustration. These developments point to a sustained period of social tension in which anti-migrant narratives and political violence are increasingly likely.
Intelligence Analysis
Immigration has become one of the most powerful drivers of political identity in Western democracies. During periods of social stress, rapid policy changes, or economic uncertainty, the issue becomes a flashpoint. The latest data on immigration levels, long-term attitudinal research, and recent large-scale demonstrations across multiple countries suggest that anti-migrant mobilization is broadening and deepening. While not uniform in its goals or composition, the trend reflects a shared trajectory: immigration is no longer a fringe grievance but a central political battleground with national security implications.
The United States is undergoing a significant shift in the size and profile of its foreign-born population. After decades of steady growth, the number of immigrants in the country has begun to decline. By mid-2025, the total had dropped to 51.9 million, down from a historic high earlier that year. This reversal is shaped by tougher asylum rules, expanded enforcement actions, and large-scale deportations. While the country still hosts the world’s largest immigrant population, the reduction marks a major demographic and political turning point.
Economic factors are also influential. Immigration contributes a substantial part of the American workforce, with immigrants representing nearly one-fifth of all workers in 2023. Declines in this labor segment may have far-reaching effects on industries that rely heavily on foreign-born employees, especially agriculture, service work, and technology. These changes feed into broader populist narratives that blend labor concerns with cultural anxieties about national identity. Public debate over these issues has sharpened, helping to energize groups on both sides of the immigration divide.
The academic research on political behavior adds another layer to this picture. Long-term analysis of European survey data shows that citizens who hold anti-immigrant views often participate less in formal political processes. Their participation tends to lag behind that of pro-immigrant citizens, particularly among those who identify with the political left or center. This withdrawal is linked to feelings of fear, anxiety, and the perception that mainstream parties do not represent their views. On the right, however, participation rates among anti-immigrant citizens are almost equal to those who hold more positive views about immigration. This asymmetry creates a large pool of disaffected individuals—particularly left-leaning—who may become politically active if mobilized by new movements or leaders.
The findings help explain why anti-migrant demonstrations can grow rapidly when political or economic triggers emerge. They also highlight why new parties or protest movements can quickly gain traction if they provide an outlet for these sentiments. As seen in Europe, this “reservoir” of disengaged citizens can be activated by political entrepreneurs who frame immigration as the central threat to national cohesion.
The modern anti-immigrant movement in the United States reflects a long history shaped by both organized activism and shifting demographic realities. Historically, anti-immigrant sentiment targeted Irish, Chinese, Mexican, and other groups across different eras. The movement evolved alongside broader ideological currents such as white supremacy and population control activism. During the late 20th century, networks of organizations emerged to influence policy and public opinion more systematically. Some of these groups, including well-known advocacy and research organizations, promote strict limits on immigration while distancing themselves from overt racism. Their messaging has been amplified by political leaders who adopt tougher rhetoric, especially during periods of national stress.
The presence of armed vigilante groups at the southern border marks a more aggressive evolution. These groups engage in direct action, detaining migrants and broadcasting their activities online to gain support. Their operations blur the line between activism and paramilitary behavior. They also reflect how anti-migrant ideology can merge with conspiracy theories, anti-government sentiment, and broader grievances. Such groups have at times been implicated in violence and intimidation efforts that heighten risks for migrants and local communities.
Recent public demonstrations outside the U.S. highlight similar themes. In Australia, coordinated “March for Australia” rallies drew thousands across major cities. Although some attendees focused on housing costs and job insecurity, the events were heavily influenced by extremist networks. Neo-Nazi symbols and inflammatory speeches were present. Known extremists spoke openly to large crowds, blending nationalist messaging with claims of cultural invasion. Violent clashes erupted when counter-protesters confronted rally participants, leading to arrests and injuries. The rallies also intersected with support for individuals accused of violence against police, indicating an overlap between anti-migrant mobilization and anti-government extremism.
The involvement of mainstream political figures at these rallies complicates the landscape. Their participation, whether intentional or not, gives legitimacy to events where extremist elements are active. This reinforces public perception that immigration is not merely an economic or policy issue but part of a broader cultural struggle. When elected officials appear alongside fringe actors, it widens political space for more extreme rhetoric.
In Poland, thousands recently marched in Warsaw under the banner of opposing illegal immigration and European migration policy. The demonstration occurred despite bad weather, and participants traveled from across the country to attend. The protest was driven by disagreement over the European Union’s migration pact and concerns about cultural change. Even though Polish society has shown broad support for tighter immigration controls, the protest reflects wider tensions between the government and opposition over national identity and obligations to allies such as Ukraine. The event shows how immigration debates in Europe intertwine with geopolitical considerations, economic pressures, and domestic political divisions.
In the United Kingdom, a massive rally organized by a high-profile nationalist activist drew more than one hundred thousand participants—one of the largest events of its kind in decades. The demonstration was marked by chants, racist slogans, violent clashes with police, and participation by well-known far-right figures from abroad. The event served as a public display of the scale and potency of anti-migrant sentiment within segments of the British population. The use of conspiracy narratives, claims of cultural displacement, and references to political betrayal reinforced the same themes seen in Australian and European protests. Counter-protests also mobilized in significant numbers, reflecting a polarized society where competing demonstrations increasingly occur side by side.
Together, these developments show how immigration has become a central axis of political mobilization across Western democracies. The issue now intersects with broader grievances about economic inequality, government legitimacy, cultural change, and public safety. As these concerns mix with online disinformation and organized extremist efforts, the likelihood of political violence rises.
There are several implications for the near future. Anti-migrant protests are likely to continue growing, especially when linked to economic pressures or major policy debates. Extremist groups will attempt to use these events to recruit and radicalize individuals with pre-existing frustrations. Mainstream politicians may feel increasing pressure to adopt harder positions on immigration to maintain or expand their support base. In this environment, social cohesion may weaken further as competing demonstrations escalate public tensions.
Governments face the challenge of balancing public concerns with responsible messaging. Heavy-handed responses or dismissiveness may fuel perceptions of alienation. Conversely, avoiding clear condemnation of extremist activity risks normalizing hate-based narratives. Public safety agencies will need to track how anti-migrant activism intersects with other movements, particularly those linked to anti-government sentiment or prior acts of violence.
The broader trend signals that immigration will remain a defining political issue. As long as economic strain and cultural anxiety persist, anti-migrant mobilization will find audiences willing to listen. This does not guarantee widespread extremism, but it heightens the risk that protests will become more volatile and that fringe actors will expand their influence.
Analyst Note
Some countries may experience sudden surges in anti-migrant activism following high-profile crimes, policy announcements, or viral social media content. These surges often recede, but each wave leaves behind a larger network of activists, making long-term stabilization harder to achieve.
