Serbia Signs $1.64B Arms Deal with Elbit Systems, Raising Risk of Protests and Direct Action

Executive Summary

On August 17, 2025, Israeli media confirmed that Serbia was the undisclosed European buyer behind a $1.64 billion Elbit Systems contract for AI-powered drones and long-range precision artillery systems. The five-year deal significantly deepens Serbia’s defense cooperation with Israel, positioning Belgrade as one of Elbit’s largest European clients.

The announcement comes amid an escalating wave of international protests, sabotage campaigns, and divestment efforts targeting Elbit facilities and financiers. Given the scale of the deal and the central role of Elbit in Israel’s military operations in Gaza, protests in Serbia and the wider Balkans are highly likely, with potential for disruptive or violent direct action modeled on campaigns in Germany, the UK, and the US.

Key Judgments

Key Judgment 1

Serbia’s Elbit deal will draw it into the focus of the transnational “Shut Elbit Down” campaign and related networks, increasing protest and sabotage risk domestically.

Evidence: Elbit contracts have triggered direct action in Germany, the UK, and the US, where activists blockaded factories, vandalized offices, and harassed financiers (Freedom News; ARLnow).

Key Judgment 2

The Elbit deal is politically sensitive given Serbia’s EU candidacy, and could complicate relations with European governments that face domestic opposition to arms trade with Israel.

Evidence: SIPRI and La Tribune previously noted Elbit’s expanding exports to Morocco; now Serbia becomes its first EU-linked mega-client. Activist pressure has already forced Barclays (UK) and HSBC to divest from Elbit.

Key Judgment 3

The scale of the deal reinforces Elbit’s financial resilience despite accusations of complicity in war crimes, which protesters frame as “profiting from genocide.”

Evidence: Elbit revenues rose 14% in 2024, despite sustained sabotage and divestment campaigns (Freedom News). US banks including Capital One are under protest for providing a $545m loan to Elbit (MEE).

Key Judgment 4

Protest movements tied to Palestine Action, BDS networks, and US community coalitions already coordinate globally; Serbia’s deal may catalyze their attention toward Eastern Europe.

Evidence: Telegram channels linked to “We Are All Palestine Action” circulate global maps of Elbit sites in the US and Europe, calling for autonomous targeting. Charleston and Boston protests emphasize a global struggle (“Shut Elbit Down” Telegram; ABC4).

Analysis

Elbit Systems, Israel’s largest private arms manufacturer, provides ~85% of drones and a significant share of land-based equipment used in Gaza. Its branding as “battle-tested” has made it profitable during the Gaza war, even as accusations of genocide mount.

Serbia’s decision to finalize a $1.64B contract represents the most significant European endorsement of Elbit since the October 7 war. This will almost certainly make Serbia a lightning rod for the same transnational protest networks that have disrupted Elbit’s operations in Germany, the UK, and across the US.

The protest risk is compounded by Serbia’s EU candidate status: activists will leverage the deal to frame Belgrade as violating EU norms and aiding war crimes. Domestically, Serbia faces its own protest culture—seen in recent anti-government rallies—which could merge with Palestine solidarity networks.

Given precedents in Charleston (weekly factory blockades), Boston (bank disruption campaigns), and Ulm, Germany (factory lock-ons), it is reasonable to forecast:

• Short-term: Protests at Serbian government buildings and possible targeting of Israeli-linked sites in Belgrade.

• Medium-term: Calls for EU or domestic divestment from Elbit contracts.

• Long-term: Potential facility sabotage or violent protest actions, modeled on Palestine Action tactics in the UK.

Sources

• Al Mayadeen – Serbia exposed as EU nation behind $1.64B Israel arms deal (Aug. 17, 2025)

• Semper Incolumem OSINT Navigator (Telegram captures, Jul. 2–11, 2025)

• Freedom News – Elbit blockade in Germany: “Genocide starts here” (Aug. 12, 2025)

• ABC News 4 – Protesters rally outside Elbit Systems plant in North Charleston (Aug. 14, 2025)

• Middle East Eye – US activists protest Capital One over loan to Elbit (Jul. 29, 2025)

• BBC – Two charged after Palestine Action protest (Jul. 2, 2025)

• ARLnow – Pro-Palestine protesters target Elbit Rosslyn office (Mar. 31, 2025)