US-Iran Peace Deal Takes Shape: Hormuz Opens, Nuclear Issues Deferred
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A two-phase framework to end the US-Iran war has taken shape as of May 25, 2026, with Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi and lead nuclear negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf arriving in Doha for talks focused on Hormuz transit and highly enriched uranium. Under the framework, Phase One commits Iran to reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade. Phase Two, lasting up to 60 days, would address the nuclear program and full peace terms. CBS News reported that negotiators have agreed to the broad principles of the arrangement. Iran says no deal is imminent, citing unresolved details, while Trump said talks are proceeding well and that time is on the US side. The nuclear issue, specifically whether Iran will relinquish its highly enriched uranium stockpile and halt enrichment, remains the central unresolved obstacle.
ANALYSIS
The emergence of a two-phase framework represents the first structural agreement between Washington and Tehran since five rounds of talks failed to produce a signed document. The principal significance of Phase One is economic: Hormuz reopening would relieve the energy market premium embedded in the current approximately $110 per barrel Brent price and restore approximately 20 percent of global petroleum and 25 percent of global LNG to transit. The humanitarian and economic pressure on third-party importers dependent on Gulf energy, particularly in South and Southeast Asia, would ease materially.
The critical vulnerability in this structure is the deferred nuclear timeline. Iran's state-linked media has consistently framed Phase One as containing no nuclear commitments, with Araghchi's delegation telling domestic audiences that nuclear talks begin only after the war ends. The US framing, reflected in CBS and Axios reporting, says Phase Two includes provisions for Iran to relinquish highly enriched uranium. If these two characterizations reflect genuine disagreement about what has been agreed rather than tactical domestic messaging, the deal contains a contradiction that will surface immediately when Phase Two begins. A 60-day negotiating window is short for resolving the most intractable nuclear dispute since the 1994 Agreed Framework.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has expressed deep skepticism and concern about the emerging deal, according to Axios. Israel's calculation is straightforward: a deal that halts US military action in exchange for a 60-day nuclear negotiation window gives Iran time to accelerate enrichment, harden storage sites, and further develop weaponization components while the US is diplomatically constrained from striking. Israel retains the option to act unilaterally during a US standdown, which would undermine the deal even if Iran initially complied.
The Doha talks involving Ghalibaf are significant because Ghalibaf, as speaker of the Iranian parliament and a former IRGC commander, carries institutional weight that a foreign ministry delegation alone would not. His presence signals that whatever framework is being finalized has buy-in at a level above the foreign ministry. However, Supreme Leader Khamenei's approval remains necessary for any binding commitment, and the parallel statement from his senior advisor Mohsen Rezaei threatening NPT withdrawal and blockade-breaking if Iran is attacked again signals that the hardline constituency's constraints on Khamenei remain active.
SOURCES
