Trump’s rejected ultimatum for Maduro to leave Venezuela, combined with a declared closure of Venezuelan airspace and ongoing lethal counterdrug operations, signals a shift toward open coercive pressure that heightens the risk of targeted strikes and rapid escalation even as Washington insists it will not send ground troops.

U.S. pressure on Maduro is intensifying through naval deployments, an imminent terrorist designation, and ongoing strikes that collectively raise the likelihood of further military escalation.