The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, announced after the collapse of 21-hour direct talks in Islamabad, marks the most significant escalation of the conflict's diplomatic dimension. Iranian defiance and Chinese non-compliance with the blockade raise the prospect of both a military confrontation at sea and a test of great-power solidarity.

The U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran is on day 9. Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in the opening strike; Mojtaba Khamenei named successor. Iran has responded with broad regional missile and drone strikes. Preliminary death toll: 1,255 in Iran. An intra-alliance dispute over Israeli fuel depot strikes has emerged.