ACLED assesses JNIM and ISSP are entrenching across the Benin–Niger–Nigeria borderlands, driving sharply higher incident counts and fatalities by exploiting weak coordination, terrain sanctuaries, illicit economies, and competitive signaling through public attack claims.

Guinea-Bissau’s army has deposed President Embaló and installed General Horta N’Tam as transitional leader, but opposition claims that the coup was staged to avoid electoral defeat deepen uncertainty in a country already prone to military takeovers and criminal influence.

ISIS’s Al-Naba Issue 522 highlights coordinated and sectarian violence across West and Central Africa, portraying these attacks as evidence of the group’s resilience and expanding operational reach.

An-Naba’s “The Light of Jihad” editorial glorifies ISIS operations in Central and Southern Africa, codifies a convert-pay-or-die posture toward Christians, and urges African fighters to eventually carry jihad into Europe, signaling both sustained local sectarian violence and aspirational external attack intent.

Islamic State affiliates are claiming new attacks on Christians and security forces in the DRC and Nigeria, even as U.S. threats and Nigerian military operations intensify and analysts stress the complex, multi driver nature of the violence.

Coordinated Somali and international operations in Lower and Middle Juba have killed key Al-Shabaab leaders Ja’far Dheere and Jaafar Gurey, delivering one of the most serious blows to the group’s leadership and cross-border networks in years.